Highlights and Commentary
By Roy Weitz
(Originally posted October 1, 2005)
[Archive Table of Contents]

We start the month off right, with an item about death and mutual funds: Let's say that you own mutual fund shares (a good guess, if you're reading this), and you want to pass your shares to a favorite relative at your death.....In the past, you generally could leave the shares in your will, transfer the shares to a living trust and have the trust distribute them at your death, or you could make your relative a joint tenant with rights of survivorship (JTWROS).....All of these methods still work, but there's also a relatively new method that many fund shareholders still haven't heard about: It's called "transfer on death" (TOD) registration.....With TOD, you generally just fill out a form and designate one or more persons you wish to inherit your fund shares.....Unlike JTWROS, you aren't required to make your beneficiary a co-owner during your life and, unlike wills and trusts, the TOD form can be completed by any non-lawyer and changed as often as you like.....As a bonus (or, for some, the main attraction), fund shares passing via TOD also avoid state probate procedures (although TOD shares are still included in the value of your estate for tax purposes).....So far, all states except Louisiana and Texas have recognized TOD registration.....While TOD can be a useful tool, especially in a smaller estate, it can also create huge and unexpected problems (for example, you execute a TOD form in the name of one child, assuming -- erroneously -- that the child will split your fund shares with her siblings).....If you're dealing with relatively large mutual fund accounts, or if you don't understand all the consequences of TOD registration, it's still best to consult with a lawyer or qualified financial advisor.
"N.C. is 48th state to approve 'transfer on death,'" Sara Hansard, InvestmentNews, September 12, 2005



Below: A portion of the American Funds TOD registration form



As of February 2005, the mutual fund market-timing scandal was 17 months old.....About 20 fund companies had already been hauled before regulators, and FundAlarm was still waiting for additional fund firms to confess their market-timing transgressions.....As we noted back in February:

"...a surprisingly simple pair of calculations can spotlight funds that have been preyed upon by market timers: All we need to do is compute the ratio of a fund's redemptions to net assets, along with its ratio of redemptions to sales.....If a fund's annual redemptions divided by average net assets (R/ANA, expressed as a percentage) is greater than 200%, and redemptions divided by sales (R/S) is greater than 95%, there's an excellent chance that the fund has been churned by market timers."

It's October now, and we've stopped waiting for voluntary confessions.....Mutual fund columnist Chuck Jaffe tends to agree with us.....In fact, Jaffe takes his pessimism to the next, logical level: He predicts that none of the remaining, market-timing fund companies will be sanctioned, or pay any price, for screwing thousands of their fund investors.....And how does Jaffe know that additional, guilty companies are out there?.....By looking at the same kind of ratios, above, that we looked at in February.....According to Jaffe, these ratios suggest that about 280 mutual funds welcomed market-timers just prior to September 2003, when the fund scandals first broke (of these 280 funds, about 220 were conventional funds, and 60 were from families like Rydex and ProFunds, which were specifically intended for market timers).....Recently, these same ratios suggest that about 110 funds are still hospitable to market timers, but only about ten of these funds are conventional, and the remainder are bona fide market-timing vehicles.....In other words, a suspicious number of conventional funds have kicked out the market-timing cockroaches, but only after the regulatory and law-enforcement authorities shined their light on market-timing abuses.....Of course, it could be mere coincidence that these 210 funds have chosen this moment to rid themselves of market timers, but we think not.....How shall we put this delicately?.....These couple-hundred funds were guilty as sin, they knew it, and they couldn't cover their corrupt asses fast enough once the fund cops got their act together.....Now, all these fund companies will get off scot-free.
"Bad deeds go unpunished," Chuck Jaffe, marketwatch.com, September 4, 2005


Fidelity has hired former Beatle Paul McCartney as a corporate pitchman.....McCartney, once known for his counter-culture hijinks, now appears to be sufficiently neutered to work for a financial services company.....According to a Fidelity marketer, "McCartney is innovative, authentic and a respected leader in his field. We see Fidelity as being the same in our field and we think this is definitely good for both parties".....The ad below (left) is the first fruit of the Fidelity-McCartney partnership.....FundAlarm's generally unreliable spies tell us that the ad on the right was in serious contention until the end, but several focus groups complained that "it gave them the munchies."


Fidelity's McCartney ad: The final version
Fidelity's other McCartney ad: Didn't quite make it



SunAmerica Focused Mid-Cap Value is about two months old, and the directors of this fund have signed off on a 1.72% expense ratio, which breaks down as follows:

(Class A shares)
Management fee0.85%
12b-1 fee0.35%
Other expense0.52%
Total expenses1.72%

The total expense ratio (1.72%) is high for a domestic mid-cap fund, but we can cut the directors some slack because this is a new offering.....But what about that management fee: Have the directors negotiated any breakpoints, so that the management fee will be reduced as fund assets increase?.....If you were negotiating a management contract for your own money, you would always -- always -- push for breakpoints, and you'd expect the directors of this fund to do the same on behalf of their shareholders.....But the directors of SunAmerica Focused Mid-Cap Value haven't negotiated breakpoints, and here's their reasoning (which appears in the fund's Statement of Additional Information):

"The Directors considered the relative advantages and disadvantages of an advisory fee with breakpoints versus a flat advisory fee that includes advisory fee waivers and expense reimbursements and concluded that the existing arrangement of a flat fee was advantageous to shareholders and suitable for the Portfolios given the size and structure of the Portfolios." [italics and underlines added by FundAlarm]

If this fund's expense ratio were to rise above 1.72%, the directors have, indeed, negotiated a deal whereby the fund manager would step in with fee waivers and expense reimbursements to cover any excess expenses.....But all this means is that the fund's expense ratio has an upper limit (which, by the way, is probably the highest it will ever be, since this is a new fund).....By failing to negotiate breakpoints, the directors have failed to secure any future economies of scale for fund shareholders.....This is a new fund in a post-scandal world, and it presumably started life with a perfectly clean slate.....If directors ever had an opportunity to negotiate even a moderately favorable deal for investors, you'd think it would be now, with a fund like this one.....Instead, these directors simply rolled over, and justified their uselessness with some boilerplate mumbo-jumbo.....If you're a director of this fund, we'd love to hear from you, especially how you rationalize accepting your director's fee for this kind of work.
Thanks to "x", who posted a slightly different take on this item on the FundAlarm Discussion Board


Robert Stansky has managed Fidelity Magellan for almost ten years, and during that time we're guessing that Stansky has been paid between $50 million and $100 million for his efforts (maybe more, certainly not less).....So, is it fair to expect that Stansky have a significant personal investment in his own fund?.....According to SEC filings, Stansky has somewhere between $500,000 and $1 million invested in Magellan, which isn't even the highest SEC ownership category (that would be "$1 million and over")*.....Folks inclined to go easy on Stansky, including "Jamma Mamma" on the FundAlarm Discussion Board, point out that we typically don't know anything about a manager's personal financial situation and, "for all we know, Stansky may be supporting 15 kids, elderly parents and a few ex-wives".....Ms. Mamma also points out that we don't know anything about Stansky's debts or asset allocation strategy.....Here at FundAlarm, we readily acknowledge that we know nothing about Mr. Stansky's personal life.....But let's assume that he has, indeed, lived a wild and fruitful life, and we'll even assume that he's supporting an ex-wife's parent or two, in addition to his own.....It's still inconceivable that Stansky hasn't accumulated at least a million dollars in liquid assets.....And it's inexcusable that Stansky hasn't invested that million dollars in his own fund, before investing in anything else.
* Half-baked goods: When managers don't invest in the funds they run," Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch.com, September 16, 2005



Fidelity Magellan

Fidelity Contrafund
Move over, Fat Bastard. Fat Bastard is gaining on you: Fidelity's bloated Magellan fund is the firm's largest, at about $54 billion in assets, but it's about the be overtaken by Fidelity Contrafund.....Only about $500 million in assets separated the two as of August 31 and, even as you read this, Contrafund may already have passed Magellan*.....Performance-wise, Magellan's manager, Robert Stansky, has been clobbered by Contrafund manager Will Danoff for all of 2005.....In fact, Danoff has trounced Stansky for the past five years.....Besides losing bragging rights, being eclipsed by Danoff isn't good news for Stansky.....If Danoff continues to post good numbers with his own behemoth fund, then Danoff's success will highlight Stansky's failure at Magellan....If Danoff also is dragged down, that will be more evidence that a $50+ billion fund is too large for any individual to run successfully -- something we, and many others, have been saying for years.
* "Contrafund closing in on Magellan," Kathie O'Donnell,
MarketWatch.com, September 2, 2005



We have it on good authority that Vanguard isn't interested in a licensing agreement: The Rapture Index, at RaptureReady.com, is designed to factor 45 different end-time predictors into a "cohesive" end-times indicator.....The Index is also designed to standardize the various index categories (such as Tribulation Temple, Gog, Mark of the Beast, Liberalism), in an effort to "eliminate the wide variance that currently exists with prophecy reporting".....As of September 19, the Rapture Index was at 161, which is deep into the "Fasten your seat belts" category (i.e., the highest level of prophetic activity).....Fortunately, for those of us who still have laundry to pick up, the index is short of its all-time high of 182, reached on September 24, 2001.
"The Wild World of Unusual Indexes," Matthew Hougan, indexuniverse.com, September 14, 2005


I received my first market-timing signal on September 21 from Intelli-Timer.....The signal came, as promised, in an evening e-mail, and here's what it looked like:




A "long" signal was in place at the time I subscribed to the Intelli-Timer service, and Intelli-Timer advises its customers to wait for the first new signal after their subscription date.....So the "short" signal, above, was my clarion call.....A "short" signal means that Intelli-Timer thinks the market is about to head south and, personally, I didn't have any sense that the market was headed in that direction.....But I signed on to the Intelli-Timer program with the intention of being a good, obedient soldier, so I quickly fired up my computer, logged on to my Scottrade account, and typed in an order to buy a $5,000 bet on a declining market: ProFunds Short OTC Inv (SOPIX), for which I expected to incur a $17 Scottrade transaction charge .....And then I encountered a problem: I had exactly $5,000 in my account, plus a few cents interest, and the Scottrade Web site rejected my order to buy $5,000 worth of SOPIX because I didn't have enough funds to cover the $17 transaction fee.....When I tried to reduce the SOPIX purchase to $4,983, Scottrade again rejected my order, because I was trying to buy less than the $5,000 minimum investment for this fund.....My first trade, and my grand experiment was already in jeopardy!.....This problem was especially frustrating, since I had specifically addressed this issue when I opened my account: The Scottrade rep assured me that $5,000 was enough the cover the first trade, since the Scottrade computer would recognize it as a $5,000 trade, take out the transaction fee, and use the remaining amount to buy shares.....In great detail, he proved to be dead wrong.....Next morning, after several insistent phone calls, the manager at my local Scottrade branch agreed to waive the $17 transaction fee ("just this one time"), and he put through my order for $5,000 worth of SOPIX.....My order was executed on the trade date recommended by the Intelli-Timer program -- September 22 -- and I ended up buying 255.969 shares of SOPIX, at 19.60 per share, for a total value of $5,017.....(Scottrade credited me with an extra $17, probably because that's the only way its computer could handle my order. Scottrade still hasn't asked me to reimburse them, although they probably will. In any event, I'll use $5,017 as the starting value of my account.).....As of September 26, the cut-off date for this issue of FundAlarm, SOPIX was valued at 19.54 per share.

To recap the activity in my market-timing account for the (abbreviated) month of September:

MonthDate of
signal
(1)
Type of
signal
Security
bought
(2)
Acct value
(beginning)
Acct value
(ending)
(3), (4)
Change in
acct value
for month
Sept, 2005Sept 21ShortSOPIX$5,017.00$5,001.63 -0.31%
Notes:
(1) Signal was executed (i.e., mutual fund trade date) was the next business day.
(2) SOPIX=ProFunds Short OTC Inv.
(3) Cut-off for valuation is 26th day of the month.
(4) Account value includes value of fund shares only. We're ignoring a few cents interest on the uninvested cash that sat in the account at its inception.


Here's the performance of my market-timing account from September 22 through September 26, ranked against the performance of each FundAlarm benchmark for the same period (benchmarks are listed in descending order of return):

FundAlarm benchmark% Return
Vanguard Small Cap Index (NAESX)1.26%
Schwab International Index Inv (SWINX) 1.22%
Dreyfus Mid Cap Index (PESPX)0.94%
Roy's market-timing account-0.31%
Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX) -0.39%
Vanguard Balanced Index (VBINX)-0.71%

It was a very short period and, so far, the results are essentially meaningless.....Intelli-Timer didn't cause my hassles, but I can think of easier ways to lose sixteen dollars.

To be continued next month....


AIM Investments is sending a sticker to brokers and financial planners that's meant to be pasted onto a jar of ready-made spaghetti sauce.....The sticker is part of a new campaign that's designed to promote AIM's asset allocation mutual funds.....AIM likens its asset allocation funds to ready-made sauce that's been prepared by professionals, and AIM hopes that individuals will choose its asset allocation funds over self-constructed portfolios.....The AIM promotion also notes that spaghetti sauce can be difficult to make from scratch, and the results are often unpredictable.
Fund Action, September 19, 2005


(Yeah, but if you have even a little bit of cooking talent, the home sauce is going to taste better.....And the home stuff probably costs less, too.)


Briefly noted:


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