Highlights and Commentary
By Roy Weitz
(Originally posted September 1, 2005)
[Archive Table of Contents]



In the FundAlarm world, a fund gets tagged as 3-ALARM if it has underperformed its benchmark over the past 12 months, three years, and five years.....On the way to 3-ALARM shame, a few 3-ALARM funds have had one or two benchmark-beating years, but their bad years ultimately outweighed the good ones.....Other 3-ALARM funds have never had a benchmark-beating year in the past five.....If you have a choice, you obviously don't want to own a 3-ALARM fund.....But even among 3-ALARM funds there's a pecking order, and a 3-ALARM funds that has never outperformed its benchmark seems to us the saddest of the sad (or, perhaps, "the most pathetic of the pathetic") .....The accompanying page lists 206 (of the 987) 3-ALARM funds in this month's FundAlarm database.....Every 3-ALARM fund on this list has underperformed its current benchmark for every single calendar year since 2000.....For good measure, every fund on the list is underperforming its benchmark again this year, through July 31.....Let's put this another way: If you own one of these funds, you haven't had a winning year since Bill Clinton was President -- and maybe not even then.


And now for something completely different: For the next 12 months, I'm going to invest $5,000 of my own, real money in a mutual fund market-timing program, and I'll report each month's investment results here in Highlights and Commentary.....Those of you who've followed FundAlarm for a while know that I've always been a boring, buy-and-hold investor.....I've never been a market timer and, in fact, I've always been deeply suspicious of market-timing schemes.....I remain deeply suspicious of market-timing, but I thought it might be interesting (and, perhaps, instructive) to get some personal experience with a real-world market timing program .....For example, I'd like to know if it's really possible to follow market-timing signals over the course of a year, exactly as they're given by the program sponsor.....Since I'm going to be playing with real money, I'd also like to know how it feels to be ordered in and out of the market by a black box, which I neither understand nor (as of now) have much confidence in.....Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I'd like to know if my gross return for the year matches up with advertised returns for the program, and I'd also like to understand the effect of real-world transaction costs and taxes on published returns.

There are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of market-timing systems, but for this test I'm going to follow the Intelli-Timer market-timing program (intelli-timer.com), which I first came across about a month ago in an article by financial journalist Chet Currier*.....Currier's article wasn't particularly flattering: Although the Intelli-Timer Web site describes its system as having been developed by "a team of physics PhDs" in the year 2000, Currier notes that the system's track record dates from early 1999.....Unless these "physics PhDs" are also experimenting with time travel, it's difficult to have a track record that's older than the system itself.....Currier also notes that Intelli-Timer's claimed annualized return since inception --- 100.5% -- defies belief.....For example, projecting a 100% return into the future, my initial stake of $5,000 would be worth about $5 million ten years from now.....But what the heck, if I'm going to do market timing, I might as well do it in a big way.....Indeed, it's the lure of these outsized (I'm tempted to say, "absurd") returns that seems to attract people to market-timing in the first place.....And, who knows, maybe I will earn 100%+ returns for myself (it's this irrational hope that also attracts people to market timing)......As the year progresses, some of my impressions and conclusions about the Intelli-Timer system will be applicable only to that system, while some will be applicable to market-timing systems in general.....I'll try to make clear which is which.

For the record, I have no business relationship with Intelli-Timer, or any other connection with them of any kind.....I approached them and requested a free subscription to their timing service, which they gave me, and that's the only thing I have received from them, or will receive from them (the service usually sells for $183 for a six-month term).....Intelli-Timer set no conditions on my use of their system, and I agreed to none, except that I promised to follow their timing signals as closely as possible for a full twelve months.....I informed the Intelli-Timer people that I'd be reporting my investment results each month in FundAlarm, and they seemed pleased with the potential exposure.....Which brings up another point: By selecting the Intelli-Timer system for this test, I am not recommending or endorsing it (that is "I am not recommending endorsing it," as in "I am not recommending or endorsing it").....As I indicated above, I know nothing about this system other than what I've read on the company's Web site.....I have no special insight into this system, or market timing in general, and anyone who follows me at this early stage, thinking otherwise, is being foolish.
"When All Else Fails in Investing, Ask a Scientist," Chet Currier, bloomberg.com, August 5, 2005



Roy's Excellent
Market-Timing Adventure

Month One (through August 26, 2005):
I Get Set Up, and Then Watch the Grass Grow

· I was subscribed to the Intelli-Timer system on August 16.

· Intelli-Timer doesn't take custody of customer funds, so I had to set up my own trading account. Although I have several Schwab accounts, I decided to open my market-timing account at Scottrade (see below for an explanation).

· Intelli-Timer's most recent trading signal was issued on July 10, 2005. However, Intelli-Timer recommends that new subscribers wait for a new signal, instead of hitching onto a signal that's already been issued. As of August 26, the cut-off date for this issue of FundAlarm, Intelli-Timer hadn't issued a new trading signal. Therefore, I still have the original $5,000 sitting in my account, plus a few cents interest, waiting for the starting bell to ring

· Since the beginning of 2004, Intelli-Timer has issued a total of 14 trading signals, with a new signal coming, on average, every 26 trading days (six days was the shortest interval between signals, and 59 days was the longest interval). So, by the next issue of FundAlarm (October 1), there's a good chance that I'll have received my first trading signal.

· When the Intelli-Timer signals do come, by e-mail, they are signals to go "long" or "short" the market (the signal currently in place is a "long" signal). Intelli-Timer recommends that its subscribers go long or short in one of two ways: I could buy and short the Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ), which is a stock, or I could buy ProFunds OTC Investor (OTPIX) and, when the signal comes to go short, exchange out of that fund into its inverse (ProFunds Short OTC Investor (SOPIX)). Since my interest is in mutual-fund timing, I've decided to execute the Intelli-Timer strategy with these two ProFunds . Intelli-Timer notes that its strategy also can be executed with similar Rydex funds. In the long run, Intelli-Timer says there's a negligible difference in return between either the QQQQ or mutual funds as timing vehicles.

· Setting up my trading account involved more time and work than I expected -- about three hours total, including a couple of hours research on broker Web sites. I was hoping to make my market-timing trades out of my personal Schwab account. But the Intelli-Timer system is likely to generate at least 10 mutual fund buy signals during the year, and an equal number of sell signals, and Schwab's mutual fund transaction fees are simply too high for that kind of activity. (Although ProFunds can be purchased from Schwab without a transaction fee, Schwab charges a redemption fee if ProFunds funds are sold within 180 days. Since it's highly unlikely that I -- or anyone else -- would ever hold ProFunds for more than 180 days, I would effectively end up paying Schwab $49.95 for each buy and sell that I made as part of the Intelli-Timer program, which would have made the trading program prohibitively expensive.) Among the major online brokers I looked at, Scottrade has the lowest mutual fund transaction fees ($17 for each online "exchange" of one fund into another, which is what I will be doing), no minimum holding period for ProFunds, and a $5,000 minimum investment for each of the funds I was interested in. With Scottrade, I'm probably looking at transaction fees of about $200 a year, or about 4% of my initial $5,000 investment, which is still a pretty ugly haircut. But it's a lot better than Schwab and, hey, you gotta spend money to make money, right?

· To be continued next month.....


Here's an interesting way of looking at the world (or at least a small part of the world): Let's say you decide to invest an equal amount in two mutual funds: One is an actively-managed large-cap blend fund, the other is an S&P 500 index fund.....The actively-managed fund comes with an expense ratio of 1.00%, while the index fund costs 0.20%.....In the first year that you own them, the actively-managed fund returns 10%, while the index fund returns 7%.....You might congratulate yourself for picking such a good actively-managed fund, and a relatively inexpensive one at that.....You might even kick yourself for not buying more of the active fund.....But now, try looking at the actively-managed fund from a different perspective: Let's say that the first 7% of the actively-managed return is merely the index return, which is worth no more than the 0.20% fee that you paid to own your index fund.....Therefore, all the rest of the actively-managed expense ratio (1.00% minus 0.20%, or 0.80%) bought just 3% additional return.....From that angle, the actively-managed fund might seem a bit less attractive.....Here's another way to frame your choice: If you invest in index funds, you don't need to pay high fees.....By definition, however, you'll never get better than the market return .....If you invest in actively-managed funds, there's a chance that your manager will beat the index return, but it's pretty much inevitable that you're going to pay a premium for that chance.....When you look at the investment world this way, you might decide that the active-management premium isn't worth it, and therefore tilt more of your investment dollars to the index side.....Even if you decide that the active-management premium is worth paying for, it still makes sense to get the most bang for your buck.....Instead of selecting an actively-managed fund that closely shadows its index benchmark, consider selecting a more aggressive manager who has a history of beating the benchmark by a relatively large margin (this is roughly what the statistical measure "alpha" refers to).....In many cases, a smart portfolio will look like a barbell with uneven weights: A large chunk of index funds at one end of the barbell, which buys you the market rate of return as inexpensively as possible, little or nothing in the middle, and a smaller chunk of aggressive, actively-managed funds at the other end, which gets you the most alpha for your active-management premium.
"A New Get-What-You-Pay-For View of Money Managers," Chet Currier, bloomberg.com, July 26, 2005



"We have experienced some damage
to the brand name..."


Putnam CEO Charles Haldeman, commenting last month on the lingering effects of the 2003 mutual fund scandals, in which Putnam played a prominent role. From a Wall Street Journal story, by Tom Lauricella ("Putnam Tries to Put Its House in Order," August 1, 2005).
"We have experienced some damage
to the Ferrari..."



[From wreckedexotics.com, a good site to visit
if you think you're having a bad day]


Since February 28, 2005, every new and updated prospectus* has been required to contain a narrative discussion of fund manager compensation.....There are no statistics on how many funds have already complied with this new requirement and, based on the normal cycle of updates, it will be a year or two until all prospectuses include a compensation discussion.....But we were able to track down about a dozen discussions of manager compensation that have already made it to print, mostly from smaller fund companies, and the results are pretty much what we expected: Enough detail to keep away the SEC enforcers, but not enough detail so that you can really understand how these people are paid.....(Congratulations to the fund company lawyers, for threading this needle in exactly the way that lawyers are paid to thread such needles).....Despite all the generalities and obfuscation, a few manager compensation disclosures do provide some unexpected insights.....Herewith, examples from four fund companies, all relatively small and well-respected: * Technically, Statement of Additional Information (SAI), which is the oft-hidden part of the prospectus.


If you'd like to unearth your fund's compensation discussion on your own, you'll first need to find the Statement of Additional Information (SAI).....In the past, we've joked about how difficult it is to find the SAI and, in some cases, it remains a true pain in the neck.....But in general, it's quite a bit easier to find SAIs today than it was a couple of years ago, as more and more fund firms make SAIs available on their Web sites (a bit of favorable fallout from the recent fund scandals, perhaps?).....To find your fund's Statement of Additional Information:

While you have the SAI open, you might want to take a look at some of the newly-required information that usually surrounds the discussion of manager compensation.....Scroll up or down a bit, and you should be able to see the total amount of money that your manager runs (both in mutual funds and private accounts), the value of your manager's holdings in your fund, the value of director holdings in your fund, and details of fund director compensation.


It's an old story in the mutual fund business: Fund companies increase their assets under management, often dramatically, yet fund expenses also increase.....For example, consider the following table, which shows the change in assets and asset-weighted expense ratios between 1989 and 2004, for several of the largest fund companies:

Fund familyNet assets
$ billion
(1989)
Net assets
$ billion
(2004)
Expense ratio
(1989)*
Expense ratio
(2004)*
Percentage increase in:
AssetsExpense
ratio
American Funds235550.680.782,31315
American Century6670.950.961,0171
Franklin Templeton441730.561.0229382
Scudder15560.731.0327341
Van Kampen16600.791.2127553
American Express17560.731.2222967
Merrill Lynch14500.991.2625727
Putnam24970.861.2730448
Smith Barney11531.201.303828
MFS10670.981.3057033
Oppenheimer5901.071.311,70022
Morgan Stanley17351.341.461069
AIM3681.031.512,16747
* Asset-weighted
Net assets rounded to nearest billion

We see that every company has experienced an increase in assets, and in four cases (American Funds, American Century, Oppenheimer and AIM), assets have grown more than ten-fold.....Yet, in every case, fund expenses have also increased.....At Franklin Templeton, assets have almost tripled, yet expenses have almost doubled over the same period.....At AIM, assets have increased over twenty times, yet expenses have increased by almost half.....When confronted with a table like this, everyone who's ever heard about "economies of scale" engages in some serious head scratching, while the fund companies offer no explanation, or vague or BS explanations, for the increasing-expense phenomenon.
"Are fund expenses too high?," Paul B. Farrell, marketwatch.com, July 31, 2005


At some point, probably around age 50, everyone should think about preparing (or paying for) a projection of retirement income and expenses (by coincidence, this is the same age at which a first colonoscopy is usually recommended).....The typical retirement income-and-expense analysis projects the growth of your assets out to retirement age, and then projects a draw-down of your assets to meet your projected retirement expenses.....When it comes to retirement expenses, the vast majority of retirement planners (both human and computer-based) assume that they will begin at a certain amount (say, $4,000 per month), and then increase at an assumed inflation rate throughout your entire lifetime.....In some cases, retirement planners run multiple inflation scenarios, but the underlying principle is still the same: Retirement expenses always start out at a certain amount, and increase inexorably.

Ty Bernicke is a financial planner who's recently caused quite a stir among his colleagues by challenging the conventional retirement-expense dogma: According to Bernicke, it's inaccurate, unrealistic, and ultimately unfair to the client to assume that real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) living expenses will increase throughout retirement, and Bernicke has proposed something that he calls "reality retirement planning"*......Taking his cue from U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics, Bernicke says that retirement planners should assume that real retirement expenses will, in fact, rather steadily drop during retirement, and this assumption can have a profound effect on an individual's financial and investment decisions leading up to retirement.....Basically, if you assume that someone will have lower retirement expenses, and you keep all other assumptions the same, that person will need to save and invest less during their pre-retirement years.....Bernicke's thesis has been picked up by a few mainstream publications and journalists, and there's also been a bit of public reaction, including reaction on the FundAlarm Discussion Board......In general, most financial planners seem to disagree with Bernicke on a number of grounds (and, yes, there's clearly some professional self-interest here).....For example, planners point out that Bernicke doesn't factor in rising medical costs, and Bernicke also violates one of the key principles of retirement planning, which is to make your assumptions as conservative as possible (steadily rising living expenses being a more conservative assumption than steadily decreasing expenses)......Many non-professionals also seem to resist Bernicke's approach, which is surprising, since anything that helps lower the mountain of pre-retirement savings should be good news.

We think Bernicke's approach makes a lot of sense, and for many of the same reasons that financial journalist Scott Burns enumerated in a recent column:** Car payments typically disappear in retirement, and so do mortgage payments, furniture expenses, business apparel expenses, nights out at regular-price restaurants, and long, elaborate travel adventures (at least after a certain age).....If you're involved in financial planning for retirement, it's a good idea to include several decreasing-expense scenarios as part of your analysis.....Sure, it makes retirement planning more complex, but the goal is to get it right, not get back on the golf course as quickly as possible.
* "Reality Retirement Planning: A New Paradigm for an Old Science," Ty Bernicke, Journal of Financial Planning, June 2005 (http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2005_Issues/jfp0605-art7.cfm?renderforprint=1)
** "Spending tapers off," Scott Burns, dallasnews.com, August 13, 2005



Briefly noted:
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