| Highlights and Commentary |
| By Roy Weitz |





And now for something completely different: For the next 12 months, I'm going to invest $5,000 of my own, real money in a mutual fund market-timing program, and I'll report each month's
investment results here in Highlights and Commentary.....Those of you who've followed FundAlarm for a while know that I've always been a boring, buy-and-hold investor.....I've never been a market timer and, in fact, I've always been deeply suspicious of market-timing schemes.....I remain deeply suspicious of market-timing, but I thought it might be interesting (and, perhaps, instructive) to get some personal experience with a real-world market timing program .....For example, I'd like to know if it's really possible to follow market-timing signals over the course of a year, exactly as they're given by the program sponsor.....Since I'm going to be playing with real money, I'd also like to know how it feels to be ordered in and out of the market by a black box, which I neither understand nor (as of now) have much confidence in.....Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I'd like to know if my gross return for the year matches up with advertised returns for the program, and I'd also like to understand the effect of real-world transaction costs and taxes on published returns.
![]() | Roy's Excellent Market-Timing Adventure Month One (through August 26, 2005): I Get Set Up, and Then Watch the Grass Grow |
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| · I was subscribed to the Intelli-Timer system on August 16. · Intelli-Timer doesn't take custody of customer funds, so I had to set up my own trading account. Although I have several Schwab accounts, I decided to open my market-timing account at Scottrade (see below for an explanation). · Intelli-Timer's most recent trading signal was issued on July 10, 2005. However, Intelli-Timer recommends that new subscribers wait for a new signal, instead of hitching onto a signal that's already been issued. As of August 26, the cut-off date for this issue of FundAlarm, Intelli-Timer hadn't issued a new trading signal. Therefore, I still have the original $5,000 sitting in my account, plus a few cents interest, waiting for the starting bell to ring · Since the beginning of 2004, Intelli-Timer has issued a total of 14 trading signals, with a new signal coming, on average, every 26 trading days (six days was the shortest interval between signals, and 59 days was the longest interval). So, by the next issue of FundAlarm (October 1), there's a good chance that I'll have received my first trading signal. · When the Intelli-Timer signals do come, by e-mail, they are signals to go "long" or "short" the market (the signal currently in place is a "long" signal). Intelli-Timer recommends that its subscribers go long or short in one of two ways: I could buy and short the Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ), which is a stock, or I could buy ProFunds OTC Investor (OTPIX) and, when the signal comes to go short, exchange out of that fund into its inverse (ProFunds Short OTC Investor (SOPIX)). Since my interest is in mutual-fund timing, I've decided to execute the Intelli-Timer strategy with these two ProFunds . Intelli-Timer notes that its strategy also can be executed with similar Rydex funds. In the long run, Intelli-Timer says there's a negligible difference in return between either the QQQQ or mutual funds as timing vehicles. · Setting up my trading account involved more time and work than I expected -- about three hours total, including a couple of hours research on broker Web sites. I was hoping to make my market-timing trades out of my personal Schwab account. But the Intelli-Timer system is likely to generate at least 10 mutual fund buy signals during the year, and an equal number of sell signals, and Schwab's mutual fund transaction fees are simply too high for that kind of activity. (Although ProFunds can be purchased from Schwab without a transaction fee, Schwab charges a redemption fee if ProFunds funds are sold within 180 days. Since it's highly unlikely that I -- or anyone else -- would ever hold ProFunds for more than 180 days, I would effectively end up paying Schwab $49.95 for each buy and sell that I made as part of the Intelli-Timer program, which would have made the trading program prohibitively expensive.) Among the major online brokers I looked at, Scottrade has the lowest mutual fund transaction fees ($17 for each online "exchange" of one fund into another, which is what I will be doing), no minimum holding period for ProFunds, and a $5,000 minimum investment for each of the funds I was interested in. With Scottrade, I'm probably looking at transaction fees of about $200 a year, or about 4% of my initial $5,000 investment, which is still a pretty ugly haircut. But it's a lot better than Schwab and, hey, you gotta spend money to make money, right? · To be continued next month..... |
Here's an interesting way of looking at the world (or at least a small part of the world): Let's say you decide to invest an equal amount in two mutual funds: One is an actively-managed large-cap blend fund, the other is an S&P 500 index fund.....The actively-managed fund comes with an expense ratio of 1.00%, while the index fund costs 0.20%.....In the first year that you own them, the actively-managed fund returns 10%, while the index fund returns 7%.....You might congratulate yourself for picking such a good actively-managed fund, and a relatively inexpensive one at that.....You might even kick yourself for not buying more of the active fund.....But now, try looking at the actively-managed fund from a different perspective: Let's say that the first 7% of the actively-managed return is merely the index return, which is worth no more than the 0.20% fee that you paid to own your index fund.....Therefore, all the rest of the actively-managed expense ratio (1.00% minus 0.20%, or 0.80%) bought just 3% additional return.....From that angle, the actively-managed fund might seem a bit less attractive.....Here's another way to frame your choice: If you invest in index funds, you don't need to pay high fees.....By definition, however, you'll never get better than the market return .....If you invest in actively-managed funds, there's a chance that your manager will beat the index return, but it's pretty much inevitable that you're going to pay a premium for that chance.....When you look at the investment world this way, you might decide that the active-management premium isn't worth it, and therefore tilt more of your investment dollars to the index side.....Even if you decide that the active-management premium is worth paying for, it still makes sense to get the most bang for your buck.....Instead of selecting an actively-managed fund that closely shadows its index benchmark, consider selecting a more aggressive manager who has a history of beating the benchmark by a relatively large margin (this is roughly what the statistical measure "alpha" refers to).....In many cases, a smart portfolio will look like a barbell with uneven weights: A large chunk of index funds at one end of the barbell, which buys you the market rate of return as inexpensively as possible, little or nothing in the middle, and a smaller chunk of aggressive, actively-managed funds at the other end, which gets you the most alpha for your active-management premium.
to the brand name..." Putnam CEO Charles Haldeman, commenting last month on the lingering effects of the 2003 mutual fund scandals, in which Putnam played a prominent role. From a Wall Street Journal story, by Tom Lauricella ("Putnam Tries to Put Its House in Order," August 1, 2005). | to the Ferrari..." ![]() [From wreckedexotics.com, a good site to visit if you think you're having a bad day] |
Since February 28, 2005, every new and updated prospectus* has been required to contain a narrative discussion of fund manager compensation.....There are no statistics on how many funds have already complied with this new requirement and, based on the normal cycle of updates, it will be a year or two until all prospectuses include a compensation discussion.....But we were able to track down about a dozen discussions of manager compensation that have already made it to print, mostly from smaller fund companies, and the results are pretty much what we expected: Enough detail to keep away the SEC enforcers, but not enough detail so that you can really understand how these people are paid.....(Congratulations to the fund company lawyers, for threading this needle in exactly the way that lawyers are paid to thread such needles).....Despite all the generalities and obfuscation, a few manager compensation disclosures do provide some unexpected insights.....Herewith, examples from four fund companies, all relatively small and well-respected:
| . | "Bonus payments are based on a number of factors including the profitability of Dodge & Cox and the member's long-term contributions to the firm. Dodge & Cox's principles emphasize teamwork and a focus on client needs, and bonuses are structured to emphasize those principles. All full-time employees of Dodge & Cox participate in the annual bonus program. Bonuses are not linked to the volume of assets managed or to measurements of relative or absolute investment returns." |
| "Advisory fee revenue, measured by growth in revenues compared to industry percentages; marketing effectiveness, as measured by growth in assets under management relative to industry percentages; operating efficiencies, as measured by operating margin relative to industry levels; and stock price performance." |
If you'd like to unearth your fund's compensation discussion on your own, you'll first need to find the Statement of Additional Information (SAI).....In the past, we've joked about how difficult it is to find the SAI and, in some cases, it remains a true pain in the neck.....But in general, it's quite a bit easier to find SAIs today than it was a couple of years ago, as more and more fund firms make SAIs available on their Web sites (a bit of favorable fallout from the recent fund scandals, perhaps?).....To find your fund's Statement of Additional Information:
It's an old story in the mutual fund business: Fund companies increase their assets under management, often dramatically, yet fund expenses also increase.....For example, consider the following table, which shows the change in assets and asset-weighted expense ratios between 1989 and 2004, for several of the largest fund companies:
| Fund family | Net assets $ billion (1989) | Net assets $ billion (2004) | Expense ratio (1989)* | Expense ratio (2004)* | Percentage increase in: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | Expense ratio | |||||
| American Funds | 23 | 555 | 0.68 | 0.78 | 2,313 | 15 |
| American Century | 6 | 67 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 1,017 | 1 |
| Franklin Templeton | 44 | 173 | 0.56 | 1.02 | 293 | 82 |
| Scudder | 15 | 56 | 0.73 | 1.03 | 273 | 41 |
| Van Kampen | 16 | 60 | 0.79 | 1.21 | 275 | 53 |
| American Express | 17 | 56 | 0.73 | 1.22 | 229 | 67 |
| Merrill Lynch | 14 | 50 | 0.99 | 1.26 | 257 | 27 |
| Putnam | 24 | 97 | 0.86 | 1.27 | 304 | 48 |
| Smith Barney | 11 | 53 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 382 | 8 |
| MFS | 10 | 67 | 0.98 | 1.30 | 570 | 33 |
| Oppenheimer | 5 | 90 | 1.07 | 1.31 | 1,700 | 22 |
| Morgan Stanley | 17 | 35 | 1.34 | 1.46 | 106 | 9 |
| AIM | 3 | 68 | 1.03 | 1.51 | 2,167 | 47 |
At some point, probably around age 50, everyone should think about preparing (or paying for) a projection of retirement income and expenses (by coincidence, this is the same age at which a first colonoscopy is usually recommended).....The typical retirement income-and-expense analysis projects the growth of your assets out to retirement age, and then projects a draw-down of your assets to meet your projected retirement expenses.....When it comes to retirement expenses, the vast majority of retirement planners (both human and computer-based) assume that they will begin at a certain amount (say, $4,000 per month), and then increase at an assumed inflation rate throughout your entire lifetime.....In some cases, retirement planners run multiple inflation scenarios, but the underlying principle is still the same: Retirement expenses always start out at a certain amount, and increase inexorably.
Briefly noted:
| The SEC regularly audits the internal operations of mutual funds, and 85% to 90% of those examinations result in a "deficiency letter," which means that the fund has failed to comply with one or more SEC rules (some of the infractions are minor, some are not ).....If you're wondering why you've never seen a deficiency letter, it's because the SEC never releases them.....And if you're wondering why the SEC never releases deficiency letters, a senior SEC compliance official says that secrecy is necessary because funds "might be less willing to cooperate" if they knew that audit findings would be made public*.....Think about this pathetic statement for a minute -- the cop is worried about antagonizing the potential wrongdoer -- and you realize how far the SEC still has to go until it becomes an effective investor advocate. |
