Highlights and Commentary
By Roy Weitz
(Originally posted August 1, 2001)
[Archive Table of Contents]

Age doesn't always beget wisdom: Specialty funds are often viewed as training grounds for young managers, and manager turnover is often high.....But a surprising number of Specialty funds are run by managers who've been on the job for at least five years.....Some of these seasoned Specialty fund managers (such as Edward Owens, of Vanguard Health Care) are truly experts in their field.....Other experienced Specialty fund managers might as well be rookies, given how little they deliver for their shareholders.....The accompanying page lists 20 Specialty funds, each run by a manager with at least five years on the job, and each currently a 3-ALARM fund.....If you own one of these struggling funds, here's a good question to ask yourself: "When, exactly, is this manager going to get it right?"


During the first half of 2001, the average Specialty-Technology fund in the FundAlarm database dropped 26.5%.....From this statistic, you might conclude that the entire tech sector has been a disaster, but that's not the case.....For example, the average "online retail" stock jumped more than 90% during the first six months of this year, and the average "online information" stock increased more than 40%.....As usual, the averages disguise some spectacular gains:

"Online retail" stock
(Symbol)
2001 Return
(thru 6/30/01)
Priceline
(PCLN)
589%
Delia's
(DLIA)
469%
FTD.com
(EFTD)
415%
Expedia.com
(EXPE)
387%
1-800-Flowers.com
(FLWS)
260%
eBay
(EBAY)
108%

If you own a tech fund, it's reasonable to expect that your manager would have spotted this mini-boom in online retail stocks, and participated in it to some extent.....After all, that's what you pay for.....But don't count on it.....According to one writer, many tech managers followed the herd out of online retail stocks last year, and missed this year's run-up entirely*.....How can you tell if your tech manager was sharp enough to benefit from the surge in online retailing?.....Given the generally dismal state of fund portfolio reporting (more about that later), this kind of investigation isn't easy.....But if you can locate recent portfolio information, you should see evidence that your tech-fund manager was gradually increasing the weighting of e-tail stocks over the past few month, and some of the big names (above) should appear in the end-of-period portfolio reports for your fund.....(Of course, there's always the possibility of window dressing, but that's another story).....If your manager missed this train entirely, you might want to find out why.
* E-Tailers Are Clicking," Lewis Braham, Business Week, July 23, 2001; sector groupings and returns come from Morningstar



It looks more like a toilet to us,
but you be the judge
Several months ago, Invesco agreed to pay $120 million so that the new Denver Broncos football stadium could be called "Invesco Field at Mile High".....Many Broncos fans weren't crazy about the new corporate name and now, it seems, Invesco insiders have some doubts, too.....According to a July 1 article by Denver Post sports columnist Woody Paige, some employees at Invesco refer to Invesco Stadium as "The Diaphragm," because they say it resembles a giant birth-control device.....Invesco CEO Mark Williamson initially threatened to sue Paige over his column, claiming that Paige's assertions were "categorically untrue," and that Paige had "impugned the reputation, character and values of Invesco Funds Group and its 850 employees".....A few days later, Williamson withdrew the threat of a lawsuit.....As Williamson discovered after checking around, some folks at Invesco really do think the stadium looks like a giant birth control device.
"Invesco to sue over column," DenverPost.com, July 2, 2001


Five years ago, Michael Price sold the Mutual Series funds to Franklin Templeton, and now it's time for Michael to say goodbye.....Price will relinquish his official responsibilities at the end of October, and Peter Langerman will take over.....At about the same time, two of Price's long-time cronies (Raymond Garea and Robert Friedman) will leave the firm, and several junior people will be promoted this month.....All of these changes call for a chart:

Mutual Series fundCurrent managementNew management
(effective August 1, 2001;
continuing manager(s) in green)
Mutual Shares
  • Lawrence Sondike (Manager)
  • Susan Potto (Assistant Manager)
  • David Winters (Co-Manager)
  • Lawrence Sondike* (Co-Manager)
  • Timothy Rankin (Assistant Manager)
  • Deborah Turner (Assistant Manager)
  • Mutual Qualified
  • Raymond Garea (Manager)
  • Jeff Diamond (Assistant Manager)
  • Jeff Diamond (Co-Manager)
  • Susan Potto (Co-Manager)
  • Mutual Beacon
  • Lawrence Sondike (Co-Manager)
  • David Winters (Co-Manager)
  • David Winters (Co-Manager)
  • Matthew Haynes (Co-Manager)
  • Mutual Discovery
  • David Winters (Manager)
  • Timothy Rankin (Assistant Manager)
  • David Winters (Manager)
  • Timothy Rankin (Assistant Manager)
  • Mutual European
  • Robert Friedman (Manager)
  • David Winters (Assistant Manager)
  • David Winters (Co-Manager)
  • Matthew Haynes (Co-Manager)
  • Mutual Financial Services
  • Raymond Garea (Manager)
  • Joshua Ross (Assistant Manager)
  • Raymond Garea (Manager)**
  • Joshua Ross (Assistant Manager)
  • Jeff Diamond (Assistant Manager)
  • * Sondike will eventually "transition" from day-to-day management, according to Franklin Templeton
    ** Garea is scheduled to leave the firm September 30, 2001

    Michael Price has been phasing out of day-to-day operations for several years, but that was no problem (according to the Franklin Templeton PR machine) because Price's five hand-picked successors had been taught by the master himself.....But soon, only two of Price's clones will be left (Sondike and Langerman, who doesn't manage any funds).....So, are we still supposed to believe that nothing has changed at Mutual Series?.....In our opinion, it's a new fund company.....In terms of obvious changes, Mutual Qualified and Mutual Financial Services appear to be the biggest question marks under the new regime.....Mutual European barely missed a beat when Robert Friedman took over for David Marcus in February 2000.....Now that Friedman is leaving, it will be interesting to see if the beat goes on.


    Warning! This image may haunt you for the rest of your life:

    "A couple of years ago, I almost got the Oakmark logo tattooed on my butt."
    -- Robert Sanborn, former manager of the Oakmark Fund,
    describing his misplaced loyalty to the firm that ultimately
    forced him out. From an article about Sanborn's successor,
    Bill Nygren ("Dollar Bill"), by Richard Ten Wolde,
    SmartMoney, August 2001


    With all the recent talk about privatizing the Social Security system, many observers assume that there's a huge windfall coming for mutual fund companies.....In fact, millions of small retirement accounts wouldn't be good news for fund companies.....Fund investors shouldn't be thrilled, either.

    The problem with small accounts is that they're simply not economical for fund companies, even those that watch their pennies.....Consider, for example, Vanguard Index 500 (VFINX), where the minimum IRA investment is currently $1,000, and the fund's expense ratio is 0.18%, which means that a $1,000 investor pays $1.80 per year towards the operation of the fund.....Out of this $1.80, Vanguard must pay for the costs of drafting, printing, and mailing an annual prospectus, as well as semiannual reports and periodic account statements.....Telephone staffing is another significant expense.....Fidelity recently estimated that it costs $13 to handle each call to its service center.....Even if Vanguard is twice as efficient on the phone as Fidelity, it would still take Vanguard seven years just to recover the costs generated by a $1,000 investor who calls twice a year.

    Vanguard currently deals with small investors by imposing a $10 annual "maintenance fee" for accounts under $10,000.....This fee raises the effective annual expense ratio of Vanguard 500 Index to 1.18% for a $1,000 investor -- not terrible for an actively-managed equity fund, but verging on the disgraceful for an index fund.....And we'd guess that $11.80 per year still doesn't cover Vanguard's costs for a $1,000 account.....Since Vanguard isn't a charitable institution, the money to pay for these small accounts comes from Vanguard's larger accounts -- in effect, large accounts subsidize the smaller ones.....However, since the ratio of large accounts to small accounts is probably quite stable, Vanguard has been able to work these subsidies into its overall cost structure.

    What happens if the floodgates open?.....If Social Security is privatized, it's been estimated that there could be as many as 140 million new retirement accounts, each initially worth about $1,000*.....If Vanguard were to pick up even 5% of those new accounts, the number of Vanguard shareholders would increase by about 50%, from 14 million to 21 million.....And there's no way that the cost structure at Vanguard, or Fidelity, or any fund company, could absorb that many new, small accounts.....So, what will the fund companies do if Social Security is privatized?.....It seems un-American for the fund companies to refuse these new accounts, or set the initial investment minimums too high.....But it seems equally unfair to expect current investors to subsidize these new accounts.....Government subsidies are a possibility, but that would create a huge, expensive bureaucracy.....Government-run mutual funds are too horrible to contemplate.

    The privatization issue is just gathering steam, and there might be some creative, workable solutions out there.....But if Social Security is eventually privatized, and mutual funds are allowed as an investment option, we have the feeling that existing fund investors will end up subsidizing those new accounts, in the form of significantly higher expenses.....If this is an issue that you care about, you might want to keep an eye on it, and let the politicians know how you feel.
    *"From Progressive to Differential Pricing," Fund Democracy Insights, July 2001



    Still no burgers
    or diversified
    growth funds

    There's a lot to be said for sticking with what you do best, but that wisdom appears to be lost on the folks at the Firsthand Funds.....Tech-heavy Firsthand has filed paperwork to open five new funds.....Two of the new funds are outside the firm's area of expertise (Firsthand Healthcare and Firsthand Biotechnology), and the other three funds are me-too offerings (Firsthand Aggressive Growth, Firsthand Multi-Cap Growth, and Firsthand Capital Appreciation).....The latter three funds will no doubt be marketed as "diversified" alternatives to the firm's volatile tech funds.....More likely, however, these "diversified" funds will end up as tech-fund lookalikes.....If you're enticed by Firsthand's track record, take your Dramamine and go with their pure tech funds.....That's what they do best.....If you want a diversified growth fund , and especially a health care/biotech fund, there are better choices.


    Some men dream of building empires, other men dream of yams:

    "We were the spicy mustard on the Thanksgiving table and now we want to be the other dishes, too."
    -- Steven Witt, Managing Director of the Firsthand Funds,
    on why Firsthand is expanding its fund offerings.
    Quoted in TheStreet.com, July 17, 2001


    Do these Firsthand guys have food on the brain, or what?

    "Executives [at Firsthand] like to refer to their offerings as the 'jalapeno on the pizza.'"
    --MFWire.com, July 17, 2001


    You don't need an Italian/English dictionary to figure out the meaning of the word "confusione," and that word seems like an appropriate way to introduce our discussion of the Pioneer fund family.....In May 2000, Pioneer was acquired by an Italian bank, UniCredito Italiano, even though many Pioneer execs had never even heard of their new owner until the deal was announced.....Unlike many fund-company buyers, UniCredito seems determined to get involved in Pioneer's day-to-day operations.....So far, the results have not been inspiring.....In May of this year, the Italian executive who was assigned to run the Pioneer funds in the U.S. quit to take a new job in the home country.....That left David Tripple in charge of Pioneer's U.S. fund operations, but not for long.....UniCredito decided that Theresa Hamacher, Pioneer's chief investment officer, would henceforth report to a UniCredito executive in Dublin, Ireland [!], instead of reporting to Mr. Tripple, who was down the hall.....Mr. Tripple, obviously a student of subtle business nuance, figured out that it was arrivaderci time for him, too.....On a positive note, Ms. Hamacher is reportedly learning Italian, and Pioneer's U.S. office has been provided with a top-of-the-line espresso machine.....On a more negative note, this deal has all the signs of a disaster in the making..... UniCredito has started throwing its weight around, in a market and culture it doesn't understand, and there's already been fallout at a couple of funds.....Pioneer has a few managers with decent track records (for example, John Carey at the flagship Pioneer fund), and it's hard to believe that these folks want to become a part of a centralized, international operation that's run out of Dublin, or Milan, or who-knows-where......We predict more changes at Pioneer, coming soon.
    "Pioneer Group Blazes Trail After Purchase by Milan Bank," Aaron Lucchetti, The Wall Street Journal, July 9, 2001


    Speaking of careers in decline, consider the case of Fred Kobrick.....In 1997, Kobrick was a well-respected manager at State Street, which he left to start his own mutual funds......Eighteen months later, seeking to "maximize" his growth opportunities, Kobrick sold out to Nvest....About a year after that (July 2000), Nvest was acquired by French bank CDC.....Last month, CDC told Fred the Maximizer that the Kobrick funds were history.....Management contracts for Kobrick's three funds (Kobrick Growth, Kobrick Emerging Growth, and Kobrick Capital) have been temporarily assigned to outside firms .....By December 1, CDC plans to merge the Kobrick funds into two new CDC funds: Kobrick Growth will become Nvest Large Cap Growth, and Kobrick Captial/Kobrick Emerging Growth will become CDC Nvest Star Growth.....Kobrick views these changes as a case of the little fund guy being crushed by the big asset-gatherers: "It's hard to be a great investor and run a company...[CDC] wanted to see profitability and growth in assets...I wanted to be a great investor.....This is more of an industry of elephants"*.....Kobrick seems to forget that he wanted to be an elephant, too, but let's ignore that for a moment.....Note that CDC isn't merging Kobrick's funds into larger, existing funds.....CDC is merely shifting Kobrick's assets into new funds that have nothing to do with Kobrick......Kobrick and CDC can spin these events all they want, and they can talk all they want about "difficult markets" and "resource issues".....When all the BS dust settles, it's clear to us that Kobrick was fired.
    * Once Hot Fund Manager Kobrick's Retail Mutual Funds Fold," Frank Byrt, Dow Jones Newswires, July 2 2001


    Briefly noted:
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